Currency news this week as Scotland decides

Last week saw a very volatile Pound bouncing around as it reacted to ever varying polls showing the likelihood of a Yes or No vote in this week’s Scottish referendum. The week started with the Yes camp in the lead but ended with the No camp on the front foot after a week of strong campaigning from the Westminster party leaders and the intervention of many large businesses, who mainly seem to think that in the case of a Yes vote they would need to move their head offices out of Scotland to guarantee currency and overall economic stability.

This week sees the actual referendum on Thursday – so we will finally see which way things are going to go. A Yes vote will almost certainly mean a weak Pound – the IMF last week stated that a Yes vote would have a “short term negative impact on the markets” – whereas a No vote could see a recovery of some of the uncertainty driven losses we have experienced over the last few weeks.

There is a fairly busy week’s worth of data too, but unless something dramatic happens to surprise the market, I think the main driver will continue to be the Scottish referendum. Here is a summary:

Monday

European Trade Balance

US Industrial Production

Tuesday

UK CPI/RPI Inflation

UK Producer Price Index

European ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey

US Producer Price Index

Wednesday

UK Bank of England MPC Meeting Minutes

UK Unemployment

European CPI Inflation

US CPI Inflation

US FED Policy Statement

Thursday

SCOTTISH REFERENDUM

UK Retail Sales

Friday

European Current Account

There are some important releases there and obviously the non-UK figures could easily cause some movement above and beyond what is happening in Scotland. Especially worth keeping an eye on the FED Policy Statement – the US Dollar is the dominant currency at present so a strong tone from the FED could see further strength there.

At home we will all be locked on Thursday’s referendum – keep in close contact with your CI account manager to make sure you are kept informed of how the currency news is affecting your upcoming currency purchase.