Bank issues warning on referendum

The Bank of England has warned that the run up to the EU referendum could hurt growth in the first half of this year, in its monthly policy statement and interest rate announcement.

All 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep interest rates on hold at 0.5%, and also said that the Pound had been affected by uncertainty ahead of the vote; adding that a vote to leave the EU would result in “an extended period of uncertainty about the economic outlook… and have significant implications for.. the exchange rate”.

This is no surprise to those of you who have been following the fortunes of the Pound since the turn of the year, although it is the Bank of England’s strongest statement yet that the Pound is in real danger of losing further value across the board. Sterling has lost around 8% of its value against the US Dollar, and over 12% against the Euro, since peaks in December.

At Currency Index we have been very busy helping clients secure their exchange rates in advance for the coming months, to avoid any further potential losses.

Quiet for data elsewhere
There is little else in terms of data due out which is likely to affect exchange rates. Yesterday European inflation figures came out as expected, and GBP-EUR was stable despite the Bank of England’s statement, with rates the best they have been for 3 weeks. Today we have some minor US data to end the week due out this afternoon.

Today

No major data

Tomorrow

0230 – Reserve Bank of Australia minutes

1430 – Reserve Bank of Australia speech

1535 – Mark Carney speech

1600 – Bank of Canada speech

Wednesday

0930 – UK unemployment

1500 – US home sales

Thursday

0930 – UK retail sales

1245 – Eurozone interest rate decision & press conference

Friday

1430 – Canadian inflation