3 days of key UK data
16 April, 2019
Yesterday’s trading was understandably quiet for Sterling markets as Brexit takes a somewhat welcomed back seat for the Easter period. Parliament are on recess currently and so the current lower volatility levels could well continue in the short term. This said there is a good chance that in this Brexit lull markets refocus on some of the background eco-stats for the UK that have attracted less attention in recent month for obvious reasons.
This week is a heavy week of data for the UK beginning with the latest Unemployment figures this morning at 9:30am. These figures have held strong of late with a steady headline figure of 3.9%, but more importantly an increasing figure in average earnings that hit 3.4% last month, far greater than the current inflation level of 1.9%. No change is expected on these numbers in today’s results. The rest of today is again fairly quiet however the next big UK release will be tomorrow morning at 9:30am with an update to the current inflation figures, and small increase from 1.9% to 2% is currently forecast. Inflation has been slowly increasing in recent months due to the knock on effects of the weak pound during the last 2 years, yet the BoE’s hands are very much tied on any rate changes until Brexit resolution is known. Thursday morning will then round off the 3 key releases for the UK this week with March’s Retail Sales results again at 9:30am.
If any of the above results differ from expectations then it is fair to expect that the market could be more reactive than we have seen recently. With little else to drive the markets currently, anyone who has an up coming requirement should look for any opportunities that this week’s figures may present as beyond this we could be waiting sometime for catalysts that could boost the pound’s value any more than we have already seen. Ask your currency consultant about our LIMIT orders than are a great tool to help capture any spikes, without the need of calling in.