A quiet start to a busy week of data – Brexit fears apparent for GBP

4 April, 2016

Matthew Boyle

The big movement of last week was in GBP>EUR which saw a 3 cent drop in the final days trading, perhaps quite a strange movement given the data we saw. The UK posted relatively good data on Thursday, showing an improvement in GBP, however overnight Thursday and throughout the day’s trading on Friday it lost nearly 3 cents against the single currency and just over a cent against the Greenback.

Whilst both the US and Europe posted some good figures the size and speed of these rate movements would suggest it was not solely down to the data that was released but more due to sentiment within the market. Regular readers will be well aware of the warnings we have given about the impending UK referendum, the surrounding uncertainty and as such the effect this has on investors and currency rates. It would seem now that this sentiment is taking hold more and more, so be prepared for GBP rates to suffer further.

With the referendum now 10 weeks away, it will only get more unlikely now that GBP will find anything to allow it to provide a defence to the advance of the single currency. So those of you who have perhaps been holding off in the hope the rate may improve might want to reconsider the position, as given the 3 cent drop we saw last week of relatively little data, we could likely see further negative movements.

This week starts relatively quietly, but with some big hitting releases and 2 fairly crucial days for the Pound. Tuesday and Thursday will be key as we see inflation data and a raft of Bank of England releases respectively. Negative data here will most likely see big drops in the rate, whilst any positive data could just only stem the probably further decline in GBP rates, so don’t hold out for any miracles. Speak to Currency Index today for some friendly guidance on how to get the most of your currency transfer.

Here is a look ahead to the significant data releases of this week.


01.30.       AUD.                    Home loans and Investment data


06.00.       EUR.                    German inflation data

08.30.       GBP.                    Retail price index,  producer price index, house price index and inflation data

12.30.       USD.                    Export and import data

16.00.       USD.                    Monthly budget statement


01.30.      AUD.                    Unemployment data

09.00.      EUR.                     Industrial production

12.30.      USD.                    Retail sales

14.00.      CAD.                    BoC statement, interest rate decision and monetary policy report

15.15.      CAD.                    BoC press conference


09.00.      EUR.                    Inflation data

11.00.      GBP.                    BoE inflation data, asset purchase, monetary policy statement, MPC vote and minutes

12.30.      USD.                    Inflation data


02.00.      CNY.                 GDP data

09.00.      EUR.                    Trade balance data

13.15.      USD.                    Industrial production data