Article 50 to be Invoked Within Days or Even Hours

14 March, 2017

Paul Newfield

A breathless day on Monday regarding events, speculation and news but quiet in foreign exchange market movement. With an improvement of GBPEUR by only three-quarters of a cent (and the same for GBPUSD) throughout the days trading, although the undeniable anticipation of expected, sudden and significant movement, one way or the other, is almost tangible.

Yesterday brought further word of political unrest in a multitude of countries in Europe. In the UK it seems the time is nigh, and article 50 is set to be invoked imminently, by Theresa May and her government, after the lower house voted to overturn a change in the legislation made by the upper house earlier this month. The government claiming in order to get a good deal for the UK they must have the freedom to do so and to “not have their hands tied”. It has been reported that British and American banks have been trying to foster stronger ties ahead of this, perhaps to soften the blow of undoubted shift in the relationships the UK will have with European banks over the next couple of years. As expected, on Monday night, the Brexit bill was backed by the House of Lords – the bill received royal assent and today became law.

It seems since the UK voted to leave the EU, everyone wants to join the revolution, with French and Dutch right-wingers campaigning to leave Europe, the prospect of a united Ireland and Scotland campaigning to leave the UK, so they can both be independent AND rejoin the EU. We will know who will be at the helm of the new Dutch government on Wednesday when the result is announced.

On Monday afternoon, Mario Draghi’s speech, this time in Hamburg, which usually sends rates either into the Gods or a tailspin, was met by the markets with indifference, with almost no effect on GBP against any other major currency. His main point, however, was that weak productivity and lack of spending on research and education urgently needed addressing by Euro-zone governments.

Staying with Germany: Angela Merkel was due to meet US President Trump yesterday but due to adverse weather conditions will now meet with him today to discuss their respective country’s future trade options.This morning will also see German consumer inflation data.

Later today we have the numbers from Euro-zone industrial production, “labor-market conditions index” figures in the USA and tomorrow the outcome of whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, as has been mooted for some time; an action that could see those major currency pairings fluctuate.

Wednesday is the first data-laden day of the week which sees key releases in Japan (industrial production and foreign investment), France (Inflation), the UK (employment and earnings), the US (retail sales and inflation and the interest rate decision mentioned earlier) and finally New Zealand (GDP).

With so much happening you deserve to know what moves and when; give your Currency Index broker a call today!