Bank of England adjust Q4 growth forecast

21 December, 2018

Yesterday proved to be a fairly positive day for the UK as Novembers retails sales figures saw a boost and the Bank of England had also released their latest interest rate decision and monetary policy statement which didn’t upturn any new surprises. Policy makers voted in line with expectation at 9-0 to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.75%, but in the minutes following the release the Bank did warn that “Brexit uncertainties have intensified considerably since the Committee’s last meeting.” and they had made some adjustment to their growth forecast, now anticipating a slower growth for the fourth quarter of 2018 down to 0.2% from an earlier forecast of 0.3%. It would appear that the uncertainty of Brexit continues to shadow the future outlook for the Pound, so we could expect an ongoing tightening of the monetary policy.

Today is the final day before Christmas holidays can officially begin with not too many big market moving ecostats out to cause any real swings in the market. The UK post the Q3 GDP figures which is expected to remain the same at 1.5% YoY and Public Sector net borrowing both at 09:30. Then at 13:30 the US also post GBP, core consumption expenditure and Durable goods with no changes expected. And later in the afternoon, Canada post their retail sales figures for October which is expected to increase from 0.2% to 0.4% – one to look out for if you have a CAD requirement.

Over this past week we have seen the pound lose ground against the Euro as each day has past by, and with no Brexit resolution in sight just yet, we could well see this downward trend continue. Rates are now dangerously close to the lowest trading levels we have seen this year, so if you do have an upcoming requirement for Euros, you may want to consider your options in the event things get worse.

Call us today and speak to one of our brokers about the various options we provide to help you lock in a rate, and remove the headache of secure your funds, our limit and stop loss order could be just the thing you need to help you lock in at your preferred rate and protect your costs in a dropping market, mitigating your risk and allowing you to enjoy your Christmas and New Year in peace.

Being our last working day before Christmas I would like to take the opportunity to wish all our customers a huge thank you for your continued business with us and from all of us here at Currency Index… A very Merry Christmas to you and a Happy New Year!