Brexit Talks to resume

4 December, 2017

Ashley Finill

ashley finill currency indexWith the festive season now upon us we have now entered the month of December and with that comes the final data releases of 2017 which is likely to create volatility in the currency market before we go into 2018. However it is not just data releases that will be dictating the markets movements as this week as Theresa May heads to Brussels with Brexit Secretary David Davis to meet European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and EU council president Donald Tusk to finally struck a divorce deal with the European union. Before the talks have resumed there has already been a disagreement with Ireland on Border control which could halt any progress, Donald Tusk commented last night and said “The EU will refuse the Uk’s brexit demands if Ireland is not happy with plans for the border”. Donald Tusk had set a 10 day ultimatum for UK to improve its proposals for a divorce bill which falls today. With this new problem arising so close to deadline day we could be no further in negotiations and should there be no progress could be damaging for the Pound. With Sterling making steady gains this past fortnight this could be another spanner in the works for this seemingly never ending brexit negotiations saga and could send the pound back into reverse eradicating the gains it had made.

Data releases today and this week

This week with have some data releases that are high likely to create volatility in the currency market. Today at 9.30am the UK will start things off by releasing PMI construction figures, it is expected that the figure will post at 51.0, better than last month which could see Sterling make gains. At 10am The EU announce PPI figures, consensus is that the figure will post 0.3% lower than last month’s reading. Finally today the US post Factory orders which is expected to post at 0.6% which is worse than last month. Should these releases meet expectation it could be a good day for Sterling but unsuccessful talks in Brussels stop could stop any potential gains so if you have an imminent currency requirement it may be prudent to get something in place sooner rather than later. Below is the a look at the other major data releases expected this week.


12.30am – AUD – Retail sales
3.30am – AUD – RBA Interest rate decision
9am – EU – Markit services & Markit PMI Composite
1.30pm – US – Trade Balance
1.30pm – US – International Merchandise Trade
2.45pm – US – Markit services PMI & PMI composite
3pm – US – ISM non-manufacturing


12.30am – AUD – GDP
8am – EU – Non-monetary policy’s ECB meetings
8.15am – Swiss – Consumer price index
1.15pm – US – ADP Employment change
1,30pm – US – Unit labor Costs & nonfarm productivity
3pm – CAD – BOC interest rate
3.30pm – US – EIA crude oil stocks


12.30pm – AUD – Imports, Exports & trade balance
10am – EU – GDP
1.30pm – US – Jobless claims
3pm – CAD – Ivey purchasing managers index
4pm – ECB draghi Speech
7pm – US – Consumer credit change


12.30am – AUD – Home loans & Investment lending for homes
7am – EU – Current account, trade balance, imports & exports
9.30am – UK – Industrial and manufacturing production
1pm – UK – NIESR GDP estimate
1.15pm – CAD – Housing starts
1.30pm – US – labor force participation, unemployment rate, average earnings & non farm payrolls
5pm – US – Baker hughes US oil rig count