Chequers success or check-mate for May

25 March, 2019

Paul Newfield

Despite being a day with very limited UK data, Friday saw the pound climb slightly more than the two cents it lost during Thursday’s trading, with levels back up to the highs of the start of last week. This was largely due to poor data across the board from Europe, with Markit PMI, services and manufacturing all coming in well under expectation with France, Germany and the EU all stuttering. The end of last week also saw the news that MPs were to begin discussing how the process of the latest vote will happen, with many options on the table including remaining in the single market and customs union and even cancelling Brexit.

There was a reported number of around a million people congregating in London, from all over the UK, on Saturday for a rally demanding a people’s vote, which although unlikely, is still a real possibility. The weekend also saw May and her cabinet meet to discuss a way forward amidst huge opposition. A battle of wills is taking place with May trying to convince her detractors and followers that her deal is the best for everyone and many other MPs trying to push through their own alternative plan. The outcome of the weekends meeting is not yet known although the cabinet is due to meet again later this morning to discuss indicative votes and alternative options to Mays deal.

With no data out at all from the UK today the focus will be squarely on Brexit talks, with other major data this week including:

Tuesday – German consumer confidence, US housing

Wednesday – New Zealand interest rate decision, EU ECB Mario Draghi, Praet, De Guindos, Mersch speeches

Thursday – US GDP, employment, personal expenditure, German consumer prices

Friday – UK consumer confidence, German retail sales and employment, UK GDP, Canadian GDP