Currency Market Report December 10th

This week starts with a quiet day, with only the German trade balance of note on the economic data calendar. Later however, we have a busy second half of the week, with important inflation figures due out from the USA and Europe, as well as UK unemployment, and lots of American economic news including the monthly interest rate press conference, retail sales, and the trade balance – so we could be in for another volatile week.

Last week, the recent trend for a stronger Euro (lower exchange rates) and weaker US Dollar (higher exchange rates), which we had been seeing since approval of the Greek bailout, came to an abrupt halt on Thursday, as ECB President Draghi announced that the Eurozone interest rate may be cut very soon. Lower interest rates usually mean a weaker currency and markets quickly started to price in an interest rate cut in the new year, weakening the Euro and improving rates for sending payments in the single currency.

On Friday rates settled down a little, and the US Dollar strengthened further when the key monthly employment figures showed more jobs than anticipated (146,000 against 93,000) were added to the UK economy in November. The Pound also struggled after poor industrial production numbers, reducing momentum against the Euro, meaning that the short trend of improving rates has perhaps come to an end at least for now.