ECB Draghi’s speech aimed at setting the pace.

3 March, 2014

Tom Arnold

Last week saw a continuation of the Pound’s recent strong, but range bound performance, with various movements over the week as a result of the various data releases, but nothing of enough note to push through any of the resistance levels. As a result, as the new week starts, we are positioned with the Pound stable just below recent multi year highs. 

This week could be a massive week on the markets… As is normally the case, as we welcome in a new month, all of the data releases for the month ahead and summing up last month’s performance are due out.


European Manufacturing PMI

ECB President Draghi’s Speech

UK Manufacturing PMI

US Manufacturing PMI



Australian Interest Rate Decision

UK Construction PMI



Australian GDP

European Services PMI

UK Services PMI

European GDP

European Retail Sales

Canadian Interest Rate Decision

US Non-Manufacturing PMI



UK Interest Rate Decision

European Interest Rate Decision + Statement



US Non-Farm Payrolls

Many of these releases are important enough to cause a significant movement in the market given the right surprises – the main points to watch are highlighted.

European GDP is expected to slightly improve from 0.3% to 0.5%, which could give the Euro a bit of a boost. While neither the UK or European interest rate decisions are expected to throw up any surprises, with both central bank’s policies fairly well outlined through forward guidance, there is always the possibility of a curve ball particularly from the ECB’s press conference, especially if Draghi talks up the Euro as he did last month. US Non-Farm Payrolls is probably the biggest release in the US outside of the FED’s policy statement and is always one to watch – the Dollar is very weak at present, so any positive change here could definitely boost the ailing Greenback. 

As ever, stay in close contact with your CI account manager to be kept informed of what the markets are doing and how this affects your upcoming currency requirement.