Election Looming

3 December, 2019

Ashley Finill

As we enter the month of December and the Christmas period looming, ordinarily we would be preparing for festivities and the new year ahead, however for the first time in over 70 years a Christmas general election is to be held to scupper any early celebrations. The various parties have been campaigning in full force over the UK for the last 5 weeks in order to get the electors vote with manifestos being heavily Brexit focused. With the election taking place next Thursday. Election polls are sporadically being released giving some suggestion in which way the result will swing. Last week You poll which had previously correctly predicted the last election result of a hung parliament has suggested that the votes are heading to the conservative’s with a heavy majority predicted. On the back of this release early last week gave Sterling a slight boost over the Euro of around half a cent on but crept back down throughout the weeks trading. On the flip side over the weekend another poll has been released this time suggesting that a hung parliament is now becoming increasingly likely.

Should there be a repeat of the last election with a hung parliament it is highly likely that the 6 months highs sterling has gained on the Euro could be eradicated overnight. Should you have an imminent requirement for currency in the coming weeks/months then it may be prudent to get something locked in sooner rather than later so you are not caught out in this unpredictable election.

Data this week


09.00 – EUR – Markit Manufacturing PMI

14:00 – EUR ECB’s President Lagarde speech

15:00 -USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

15:00 – USD – ISM Prices Paid (Nov)


03:30 – AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision

03:30 AUD -RBA Rate Statement


00:00 – EUR -Eurogroup Meeting

00:30 – AUD – Gross domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3)

15:00 – USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

15:00 -CAD – BoC Rate Statement

15:00 -CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision


10:00 – EUR -Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q3

13:30 – USD – Trade Balance (Oct)

13:30 -USD -Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 29)

15:00 – USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct)


13:30 – USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)

13:30 -USD – Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Nov)

13:30 – CAD – Unemployment Rate (Nov)

15:00 -USD -Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Dec) Prel