Election week is here

9 December, 2019

Matthew Boyle

This week we have the UK General election on Thursday evening when we will see who wins to head the newly formed government, and what path Brexit takes in the coming months. This is a critical time for the Pound and indeed the country, as the result is pivotal as to how we move forward.

Will it Be Boris with his “oven-ready” plan, who assures us he will get Brexit done swiftly, and we that we will have trade deal concluded with the U.S before the end of Next Year?

Corbyn, who has pledged to get a deal agreed, and then allow us a referendum on that, and indeed whether we even want Brexit at all?

Or Swinson, who has staked the Lib Dems claim on reversing Brexit entirely and the UK remaining?

Currently, the polls suggest a large Tory win, and this is being reflected in market rates – GBP>EUR rates are currently a cent off the best they have been since June 2016 when the Brexit referendum occurred, and GBP>USD rates the best in 6months. So a Tory win and swift Brexit is certainly being priced in.

However, it should be noted that the Pools in 2017 showed the Conservatives hugely ahead going into the election, which was not the case at the time of the result. And let us also remind ourselves that no -one thought we would Brexit in the first place, that Trump would win the US election, or Leicester would ever win the Premier League (and now this season be fighting for it again!). Eight weeks ago, GBP>EUR rates were 7% lower than where they are sat currently, which gives an idea of how much pricing we are seeing. If the Conservatives don’t get the win the market is expecting we could well see rates drop, and quickly. If they do how much will they realistically rise given where they are sat?

Readers may like to consider this, and whether they want to take a huge risk to rates moving and potentially their costs increase significantly overnight. If you have any upcoming requirements speak to your Broker today for some friendly guidance on how to remove a lot of the risk that Thursday night and the election holds – the result could have a huge impact on exchange rates for many months to come.

This week there are a few data releases of note this week but expect markets and GBP rates to be strongly focussed on the election.

07.00 EUR German Trade balance data
22.05 AUD RBA Governor Lowes speech

09.30 GBP UK GDP
10.00 EUR German ZEW survey
13.30 USD US Non-Fam payrolls

13.30 USD US CPI data
19.00 USD Fed interest rate decision and Monetary Policy statement

N/A GBP UK election
07.00 EUR German Harmonised CPI data
12.45 EUR ECB Interest rate decision
13.30 USD Jobless claims

13.30 USD Retail sales