EU never know

16 June, 2016

Matthew Boyle

The story of the last few weeks has certainly been, in, out and has indeed been shaking it all about. With Ecostats and data releases largely out of the window in terms of how they are affecting the market and sentiment largely the driving force in GBP/EUR rates, it has been the polls driving the movements. Yesterdays big poll news was an Ipso Mori poll of Scotland, which unsurprisingly showed the Scots appetite to remain – 52% remain vs. 32% leave with the remainder undecided. However interestingly this did show a shift in the sentiment in the same poll taken six weeks ago which showed 66% and 29% respectively. As a result and also in part due to a raft of positive UK data released in the morning GBP gained around a cent against both EUR and USD throughout the day’s trading.

Overall the referendum poll of polls now puts leave 3 points ahead of remain, whilst the bookies are still backing remain as favourites. In reality it would now seem it is almost a straight 50/50 and as such many of you (if you haven’t already) may like to consider strategies to reduce risk as analysts warn of a potential 10% shift in rates following the vote. If you are concerned about risking things and haven’t spoken to your Currency Index broker already, give us a call today.

Elsewhere in the world
Last night saw the FOMC announce interest rates would remain unchanged it is now suggested there will be one or two hikes to the US rate later in the year, a big change from the FEDs original plan in March. Unsurprising perhaps given the poor non-farms payroll release earlier this month, this saw the greenback weaken slightly against GBP and EUR. And on the other side of the world, Australia showed an increase to 17.9k from an expected 15.0k in employment change, and the unemployment rate remained at 5.7%- a strong result for the Australian Dollar.

The day ahead
Today is a particularly busy day in the way of data, and whilst polls are seemingly dominant at present they can always move the market. From the UK we have retails sales, BoE interest rate decisions and minutes. Whilst both the US and Europe release inflation data. With rates being the most volatile they have been 2009 if you have any transfers that involve these big 3 on the horizon, give us a call today to avoid being caught out come the 23rd. With the polls currently nail-bitingly close and the risk levels so high and increasing by the day, unless you are prepared to gamble what could be 10% or more on essentially a flip of a coin, speak to us today for some guidance on how Currency Index can help safeguard your transaction.