Exchange Rate Outlook

Prospects for the Pound in 2009 are as uncertain as ever – a look at this week’s upcoming events which are likely to affect exchange rates at the beginning of the year.

After a quiet Christmas, there is lots of data out this week from around the world. “If you are looking to transfer money overseas at the best exchange rates, it’s worth speaking to your currency broker to keep up to date with market movements”, says Chuck Hall, payments manager at Currency Index Ltd.

Tuesday 5th
UK Nationwide House Prices – will give an indication of likely interest rate cuts from the Bank of England
UK and EU Purchasing Managers Index – manufacturer inflation figures for the UK and Europe
US FOMC Minutes – released by the Federal Reserve in the USA, gives overview of economic conditions

Wednesday 6th
UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence – key economic indicator for UK confidence
EU Producer Price Index – main inflation figure for the Eurozone

Thursday 7th
EU Consumer Confidence – European confidence survey
EU GDP – is the Eurozone contracting and in deep recession?
UK BoE Interest Rate Decision – this month’s central interest rate decision

Friday 8th
UK Producer Price Index – main inflation figure for the UK
EU Retail Sales – another important economic indicator
US Non Farm Payrolls – the main US employment metric showing jobs created last month

All these releases are likely to have an impact on the Pound’s relative value to (in particular) the Euro and US Dollar rates. If UK interest rates are cut heavily on Thursday, we could be in for plummeting exchange rates yet again, while readers buying property in France, Spain and the rest of Europe, will be hoping for weak Eurozone data on Wednesday and Thursday.

Keep in touch with a currency specialist, who can save you money against your bank’s exchange rate.