Fireworks ahead for currency markets

5 November, 2012

Robin Haynes

This week we could have some ‘oohs’ and ‘aahs’ as the US Presidential election takes centre stage in the news. Historically, elections have not affected the currency markets enormously, but this time could be different as the US economy faces an infamous ‘fiscal cliff’, which the 2 parties will deal with very differently. Romney is more likely to have the support of Congress and therefore we may see a stronger US Dollar with a Romney victory – but anything could happen.

Last week, the US Dollar gained strength from the monthly non-farm payrolls data, which showed that 171,000 jobs had been added to the US economy, compared to expectations of 125,000, so rates for sending US Dollar transfers have fallen already and the USD seems to have some momentum.

For the Euro, conversely, we have the best rates for buying Euros for a month. This week with retail sales, producer inflation and the monthly interest rate press conference, any better-than-expected data could bring rates back down.

In the UK we also have the QE and interest rate decisions on Thursday, and an important independent GDP estimate tomorrow. So all in all this week there could be some Fawkes in the road for exchange rate directions, keep in touch with us at Currency Index to make sure you don’t miss any of the sparkling rates on offer.