Happy Easter to all but may not be for the pound

24 March, 2016

Ashley Finill

Today is the final trading day of the week as we enter a four day break from the UK Market as the nation celebrates the Easter period. However this does not bring a halt to the currency markets as overseas the US and Asian markets are still open to trade. It is highly likely that the pound will react to the data that s due to released in these markets and come Tuesday could see the pound fall even further like it has this last week. With the closure of UK trading this could become a risk for anyone with a currency requirement in mind as come Tuesday the rate you may have been looking to secure in the near future could quickly diminish.

The pound has taken a battering this week losing 2 cents on the Euro and nearly 4 cents on the US dollar. It’s now becoming clearer that with the referendum edging closer and closer the pound becomes weaker and weaker and this could be a trend set to continue further even after the referendum is done and dusted. It’s worth noting that GBP/EUR rates are at the lowest point so far this year. Sentiment is heavily with Dollar and driving the Pound and the Euro down, with the latest shocking terror attacks in Belgium these unfortunate circumstances will aid the Greenbacks surge due to risk aversion and investors not wanting to risk pumping money into a fragile economy.

Today see’s a raft over data being released across the board. In the morning at 9.30am the UK record retail sales with analysts predicting a minus figure down from last month’s 2.3% reading. At 10.30am the Eurozone release targeted LTRO data. Later in the afternoon at 12.30pm three key bits of data are to be posted, Jobless claims orders, durable goods orders and finally markit services PMI. If these important data release all record a figure above expectation then be prepared for the Dollar to rally on further and the Pound to continue its decline, that goes for any negative data from the UK also, With the pound be so sensitive any negativity will trigger a move in the rates which could hinder the opportunity of securing the rates we are currently trading at.

Although the UK and Eurozone markets are closed the US market remains open for trading and as such they are set to release gross domestic product data in the afternoon of good Friday, the same goes for Easter Monday as Personal income is posted at 12.30pm and later in the afternoon personal spending, Markit PMI and pending home sales with be recorded also. With all this data to come out whilst the UK enjoys this Easter period fully expect the Currency markets to be very much active. If you have a requirement and thinking of leaving it till after Easter it could be damaging considering the Pounds fragile position so it may be wise to look at you options today before it is too late.

As always please keep in touch with us here at Currency Index for information and guidance with you currency requirements.