Mid month data comes as Greek talks stutter

15 June, 2015

Tom Arnold

As we reach the middle of the month the usual splurge of data is due out from across the major economic zones. This happens with the backdrop of ongoing, albeit frustratingly non-productive, talks between Greece and it’s debtors. At various points in the last few weeks the news has been of an ‘imminent deal’, but many market watchers think this might in fact be Greece pulling out all the PR stops, rather than actual substance. Last week a positive rumour fuelled Euro was pegged back significantly when the IMF actually walked out of the talks and this trend has consolidated since as the talks have continued to yield nothing. Talks will continue, but with the Troika negotiating team describing the differences between the two sides as ‘wide’, any rumours of a deal in the short term should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Here is a summary of the week ahead:
European Trade Balance
ECB President Draghi Speech
US Industrial Production

German CPI Inflation
German ZEW Survey
European Unemployment
UK CPI + RPI Inflation

UK Unemployment
BoE Policy Meeting Minutes + Vote
European CPI Inflation
FED Monthly Policy + Interest Rate Decision

UK Retail Sales
US CPI Inflation

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing
German PPI

The highlights are definitely in the first half of the week, with the pick being Mario Draghi’s speech on Monday – what will he have to say about the Greek talks and last week’s European data – UK inflation on Tuesday – ever a driver for the Pound, inflation governs interest rate movement – when will we see rate hikes – and the Bank of England minutes on Wednesday, followed in the evening by the FED’s monthly policy announcement – we all think we have a pretty good idea what these two central banks are doing and their expected policies of ‘hold for now, and start raising rate later in the year or early next year’, but they have surprised us before.

With so much going on make sure you stay in close contact with your CI account manager to be kept informed of exactly what is happening and how it is likely to affect your upcoming currency purchase.