Mixed week of data sees currency seesaw

4 June, 2018

Nakhil Mahra

Last week was a mixed week of data for all 3 major currency pairings. GBP starting the week where it finished before the bank holiday weekend, where trading before that had remained flat and trading within a half a cent range. However, that changed quickly into Tuesday and Wednesday with last few eco stats for the month, with both the USD and Euro making gains on Sterling. The only hope being the Italian elections and uncertainty surrounding that issue, leaving the USD as the clear winner as it reached its lowest level against the Euro for some time now.

This didn’t last too long, however, as the Italian election turned our positive for the EU and the Euro, as an agreement had been reached between parties to form a coalition and thus avoiding a snap election. As we have seen with snap elections previously, it is never good news for the currency or the government, just ask Theresa May. As a result, Euro gained the best part of a cent against both its major pairings. Making your Euro purchase £750 more expensive on a 100,000 Euro purchase overnight

No sooner was a agreement reached in Italy before the Spanish wanted their turn in the political merry go round. A vote of no confidence on Friday lunchtime following the corruption verdict on the Gurtel affair saw the Spanish government collapse and Mariano Rajoy to be ousted out. With this news and the positive UK Manufacturing PMI in the morning, Euro tailed off late Friday afternoon and saw its gains made only 24 hour ago completely wiped out and providing a buying opportunity for any Euro buyers.

There is a relief also for USD buyers, with Trump risking trade wars with the EU and further afield by placing tariffs on goods traded with the US. The uncertainty and the anticipation of what Trump will do next, leaving the USD on the back foot entering this week.

With another busy week ahead as is the case at the start of every month, stay in touch with your CI account manager to be kept up to date.

9.30 GBP Construction PMI

9.30 GBP Services PMI
14.00 ECB President Draghi speaks
15.00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

15.00 USD Crude Oil Inventories