New Year data begins for the Pound
10 January, 2018
Yesterday’s trading saw another very flat day for the pound with GBP/EUR seeing no change and trading within a tight 0.25% range. The US Dollar did enjoy a slightly better day gaining against the Pound and the Euro, with cable rates dropping just under cent, down from the peak buying rates seen since the referendum in 2016. The day was absent of any major data, with just Euro-zone unemployment rate to report on, which met expectations at 8.7% and therefore saw little impact on the markets.
After a very quiet start to the year for Sterling, today is the first day with some notable UK data for the markets to react to. At 9:30 am we will see the result of the latest manufacturing and Industrial Production figures from the month of November, as well as Trade Balance statistics. Whilst the month of November is expected to post a small growth in these areas, the annual figure for Manufacturing is expected to drop from 3.9% to 2.8% growth, just as Industrial production is expected to drop from 3.6% to just 1.8% growth. Bar any upside surprises, it is difficult to see any support for Sterling if these figures are confirmed.
At 1:00 pm we also have the NIESR GDP estimate for the UK up to December, previously forecast at 0.5% for the final quarter of 2017. The rest of the day is again fairly quiet but with a couple speeches to watch out for across the pond. Friday will be the busiest day for US data whilst all the main UK releases will be piled into next week when the risk levels and volatility will inevitably step up from the calmness seen in the markets during recent weeks.