Poor manufacturing data out ridden by US debt crisis

14 October, 2013

Matthew Boyle

Last week saw much of the recent gains made by the Pound – particularly against the USD and Euro – eroded as it lost around 1.5% against both, falling from its near 9 month high in the previous weeks trading. Helped by the ECB announcement from Mario Draghi that Eurozone interest rates will remain low for some time, coupled with indications of the first signs of growth in 2 years during the 2nd Quarter of 2013, the Euro was boosted. Interestingly despite the US ongoing debt crisis the greenback appears relatively stable and also clawed back lost ground.

No doubt both the US Dollar and Euro would have been boosted by a raft of poor manufacturing and production data from the UK.

Like last week once again we have a quiet start for data for the 3 majors, which ramps up as the week progresses. Some analysts now feel the pound has run out of steam and that given we have already seen much of the positive news from the UK recently, it is likely we could see the Pound continue to lose ground particularly against the Euro which some argue is beginning to show the green shoots of recovery. It should be noted though that as the US crisis continues and the IMF warn of a potential global recession if the US default, the markets are likely to remain volatile given the USD previous safe-haven status and that it is the largest traded currency.
As such if any of you have any upcoming transfers to make, speak to your Currency Index broker sooner rather than later to avoid being caught out by any adverse or unexpected market movements in an uncertain time.

This weeks date releases of note…..

CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY & MoM) (Sep)
CNY New Loans
GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY & MoM) (Sep)
EUR German ZEW Survey – Economic sentiment
NZD Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Q3)
GBP Claimant count change (Sep)
GBP ILO unemployment rate
EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY & MoM) (Sep)
GBP Retail Sales (YoY, MoM & YoY ex fuel) (sep)
AUD RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech
CNY GDP (YoY & QoQ) (Q3)
CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Sep)