Slow start, but busy week ahead

7 July, 2014

Tom Arnold

This week starts off very slowly with an almost complete absence of data of note from any of the major zones today. We have already seen some German industrial production numbers come in slightly lower than expectations, which saw a slight spike of Euro weakness, but this has already settled down and the markets are likely to be fairly stable today, albeit not for long, with a week of various significant data ahead.

The Pound is still very strong and well supported by recent positive UK data and helped in its battle against the other majors by poor data in their respective zones. The Euro remains very vulnerable, given the ECB’s stance than the Euro’s strength is “a problem” to Europe’s overall recovery, and the Dollar is struggling, despite some positive jobs data last week, because of a horrific recent GDP figure, and a raft of other data falling below expectations.

Data Out This Week


  • UK Industrial + Manufacturing Production
  • UK Q2 GDP Estimate


  • FED Federal Open Market Committee Minutes


  • UK Trade Balance
  • European Central Bank Monthly Report
  • Bank of England Monthly Policy Statement


  • German CPI Inflation

The likely highlights of the data due this week are the UK GDP, FOMC minutes and the BoE’s monthly policy statement. UK GDP is doing very well at the moment – any failure to maintain this progress could weigh heavily on the Pound… The FED needs to do something to fix the still floundering US economy – could we see details of their plans – could the Dollar get a boost? Much of Sterling’s strength is as a result of expectations of a UK interest rate rise this year, with only “when?” the big question – surely now is too soon for a move, but could the voting change?

As ever, to be kept informed on what is happening and how it could affect your upcoming currency requirement, and to discuss the options open to you, make sure you stay in close contact with your CI currency broker.