Stable rates but for how long?

12 April, 2018

Paul Newfield


Wednesday actually saw some movement in the GBP-EUR rates, as the pound lost nearly a half-cent against the single currency and the USD between 8 am and 12 pm, before correcting back up during the afternoon’s trading. The reason for the slump was UK manufacturing and industrial production figures came in well below expectation. The rates were further compounded as Draghi’s speech was given in Frankfurt, where he stated that inflation and wages were both due to rise as the European economy continues to improve.

Throughout the afternoon there was plenty of US data released including inflation figures, oil stocks, the monthly budget statement and the FOMC minutes given at 6 pm UK time. The US data, as expected appeared to have little to no effect on GBPEUR. Against the dollar, however, there was a drop of over 40 “pips” (four-tenths of a cent).

As we are now in a time of relative calm, with little movement in the rates, the smallest change has now become more significant, if you truly want to maximise the rate you get for your currency. The movements yesterday will have gained you or lost you around €400 on converting a £100,000 transfer for a property in Spain; a good sum to have and should an opportunity arise where it can be attained (we will certainly endeavour to help with this), it will effectively be paying your air fares over – free flights!


Thursday sees a very limited amount of data from the UK with only a BOE credit conditions survey at 8:30am with Gov. Carney speaking at 7pm. Ones to watch during todays trading hours is the ECB monetary policy meeting accounts at 11:30am and the ECB’s executive board member Benoit Coeure speaking at 12:15pm, who is expected to talk up Europe’s continued relative prosperity, which could lead to a drop in the GBP-EUR rate.

Elsewhere from the states, we have initial and continued jobless claims at 12:30 pm and later in the evening at 7 pm FOMC member Kashkari gives a speech. Stay in touch to keep ahead of the markets.