Turbulence expected for rates this week

15 October, 2012

Robin Haynes

Last week saw most exchange rates finish roughly where they started – with little movement throughout the week. We are expecting more market movement this week though, with several key news releases as well as various important Eurozone meetings.

On the data front, the Pound can count on important news releases every morning from Tuesday to Friday. We have inflation, unemployment, retail sales and public sector borrowing, as well as the Bank of England minutes, all coming out this week. The results will show whether the British economy is recovering a little more (in which case, better exchange rates are likely) or is still in the doldrums of a sticky recession (and unsurprisingly then lower exchange rates). If you have any currency to buy or sell against the Pound this week, keep an eye out for market movements at 9.30am each morning – or contact us at Currency Index and we can keep you updated.

In the Eurozone, the IMF last week called for Greece to have more time to meet its bailout conditions, a view not shared by Germany, and at the same time we had a downgrading of Spanish debt to near-junk status. Suprirsingly the Euro did not suffer, as markets see Spain’s admission of the need for a bailout as a necessary step towards future Euro confidence. Bizarre, but with the Eurozone nobody can predict what will happen next. One thing is for sure, Greece will run out of money by the end of November and must have its bailout ratified – and we would assume that the IMF and Eurozone will make sure this happens one way or another, leading to potential Euro strength.

This week, Thursday and Friday are the Extraordinary EU Economic Summit as well as a European Council meeting, so expect Euro volatility ahead.