USD takes the spotlight ahead of data release

2 September, 2013

Tom Arnold

As we start a new month, we have all of the usual early month data releases due out, including policy statements from all of the big central banks, apart from the FED, but in the US’s case we have the Non-farm payrolls, which is normally the most anticipated release stateside each month. So we are likely in for much volatility. The Pound is holding up pretty well, and despite some loses over the last couple of weeks has managed to come back to the recent highs it has held against both the Euro and the US Dollar. We haven’t got too much UK data this week, apart from the Bank of England statements on Thursday, but with things expected to stay the same there, I would think it might be more the other zone’s data or news which will drive currency movements this week. There is some services (Tuesday) and manufacturing (Friday) data, which are worth watching for, but these probably won’t be too vital. In Europe we have some manufacturing figures over the next couple of days, but Wednesday is the first big one, with some services data, retail sales figures and most importantly the GDP figure. It was shown the Eurozone had come out of recession last time around – will this be maintained? Will the surprisingly bad German data we saw last week show through on this? Europe then have their policy statement from the ECB on Thursday too before a quiet end to the week on Friday. There is likely to be no change from the ECB too, but with the press conference straight after their announcement, we do normally get a bit more movement in the markets as their statement is dissected by the financial press from around the world. The US starts quietly with a bank holiday today for Labour Day. But comes straight in with some big manufacturing data tomorrow, the FED’s Beige Book (high scale economic analysis) on Wednesday, jobs figures and some more manufacturing data on Thursday and finally the big one on Friday – Non-Farm Payrolls. The US is also right in the mix to be involved in the Syria crisis, with President Obama pushing to be allowed to intervene. Risk appetite in the market is on the Dollars side at the moment, but don’t expect this to continue once the missiles start launching, especially given the locality and the likely effect on Oil supply and hence price. With such a busy week in store it is vitally important to stay in close contact with your CI account manager to be kept informed of how the data is moving the market and how this will impact you currency purchase and decision as to when you send your a href=””>money abroad