Weekly Currency Review 16-11-15

Last weeks’ trading was slightly more stable than the weeks before with fewer key releases to drive exchange rates. The pound was boosted slightly off positive unemployment figures, the Euro remained weak although did not lose any further value from the previous week, and the Dollar remains strong despite poor Retail Sales figures on Friday. US Retail Sales were expected to  grow by 0.3% in October but missed the mark with actual results of just 0.1%. This caused some brief dollar weakness but traders soon took advantage of this push to push the dollar higher again as they continue to speculate on a rate hike next month.  Both GBP/USD and GBP/EUR finished the week around 1% higher so good news for buyers of these currencies.

Rate movements however are being largely driven by EUR/USD currently and beneath this the pound remains under pressure. Without good data the pound is still fragile to further selling in the coming weeks. GBP/EUR is still trading at the best rates in 3 months and 9 cents better than just a few weeks ago. GBP/USD is trading a 10 day high but remains in a negative trend so current levels still represent good buying opportunities for both currencies.

Today is quiet for data releases but the rest of week brings a number of big announcements that with it carry significant risk to exchange rates. A UK inflation report and figures are released tomorrow which is know thorn in Sterling’s side, and unlikely to bring any positivity. Thursday’s Retails Sales for the UK are also forecast to have dropped sharply. FOMC minutes on Wednesday will be critical for the US Dollar as markets digest the details to gain more or less confidence on a December rate hike. An overview of all release to look out for are as below:

Tuesday:

9:00am (UK) – Inflation Report Hearing

9:30am (UK) – Consumer Price Index

1:30pm (USD) – Consumer price Index

2:15pm (USD) – Industrial Production

Wednesday:

6:00pm (USD) – FOMC Minutes

Thursday:

3:99am (JPY) – BoJ Interest Rate Decision

9:30am (UK) – Retail Sales

Friday:

9:30am (UK) – Public Sector Net Borrowing

1:30pm (CAD) – Consumer Price index

3:00pm (EUR) – Consumer Confidence