Weekly Market Overview

14 September, 2015

Rob Bastin

Last week was a mixed bag for the pound, although the overriding sentiment when assessing all announcements and exchange rate movements is particularly negative. Manufacturing & Industrial production was very weak, as was growth in the construction sector, all of which are genuine concerns as growth in the UK slows down and exports are affected by an over-valued pound and drop in overseas demand. The bank of England also stated last week that there are risks ahead due to the economic slowdown in China, and that increased volatility should be expected in the weeks ahead. With interest rate hikes for UK now at the back end of recent expectations, and data continuing to disappoint, we have every reason to expect a rough ride for Sterling in the weeks and months ahead.

GBP/EUR tested a 3 week high on 3 occasions last week before dropping sharply each time, increasing the likelihood of a move towards 1.30 before things start to improve. GBP/USD had a good week with the US Dollar correcting from its huge rally in August. Again however, lower rates are expected to return before long, particularly if the FED decide to raise rates this week on Thursday. On the flip side if rates are held, further short term opportunities to buy Dollars may be presented.

This week brings a host of major announcements that could bring some opportunities if things go well for your requirement, however equally pose great risk if announcements are not favourable, particularly for those looking to send money overseas from the UK. We have interest rate decisions from Japan, Switzerland and USA, as well as Retail Sales and Inflation figures for the UK, US and Euro-zone. Below is a list of all the major releases to look out for, and to discuss the potential impact of any of these in further detail, please contact your broker today on free-phone 0800 043 2623.

2:30am (AUD) – RBA Minutes
4:00a (JPY) – BoJ rate decision
9:30m (GBP) – Consumer Price Index
1:30pm (USD) – US Retail Sales

9:30am (GBP) – Unemployment Rate / Average Earnings
10:00am (EUR) – Consumer Price Index
2:30pm (USD) – Consumer Price Index

8:30am (CHF) – Swiss National Bank Rate Decision
9:30am (GBP) – UK Retail Sales
7:00pm (USD) – FED Interest Rate Decision
7:30pm (USD) – FED policy Statement & Press Conference

9:30am (GBP) – Public Sector Net Borrowing
1:30pm (CAD) – Consumer Price Index