Another volatile month?

1 October, 2018

Paul Newfield

September saw GBPEUR rates fluctuate by as much as 2.5 cents over the course of the month, meaning converting £200,000 into euros for buying a property abroad, at differing times, would have seen a difference of €5,000. Could this month be more of the same?

In a word, yes. There is a lot that will be addressed this month, not just in the form of ecostats but major political events centred on the Brexit. This week we have the Tory party conference from 30th Sept-3rd Oct with the EU summit in Austria from 18-19 Oct. Much will be decided and declared during these dates over the future of the UK-EU relationship, with an agreement needing to have been set out along with the terms of “the divorce”. Telling is Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson asking for her fellow Conservatives (presumably staunch remainers) to join her in a “period of silence” to help show solidarity and ensure Theresa May gets a Brexit deal over the line.

Brexit secretary Dominic Raab has stated that we may have “no choice” but a no deal if the EU decides to lock in the UK to a customs union, saying that any attempt by the EU “via the back door” to do this, will be met with the UK walking away.

Here are some key dates for Eco-Stat releases this week:

Monday: Markit Manufacturing EU, 9am/UK, 9:30am and mortgage approvals UK 9:30am
Tuesday: Australian interest rate decision, PMI construction UK, Fed’s Powell speech 5:45pm
Wednesday: Markit services PMI: EU 9am, UK, 9:30am, US, 2:45pm
Friday: Non-farm payrolls, Average earnings, unemployment rate 1:30pm, Canadian employment figures 1:30pm