Brexit Deadline Set

Last week we saw a deadline set for the UK to finally leave the EU; March 29 2019-11pm. Just over 500 days to strike a deal with the EU for a ‘Soft Brexit’, and with the updates and progress from recent talks with may need each minute available to strike a deal. Barnier, on Friday put further pressure on Theresa May to be proactive and show willingness to move talks by stating, “Britain has 2 weeks to clarify issues or make concessions”. Relating to EU citizens rights in the UK, a long discussed issue with no apparent result. The impact EU citizens have on the UK was highlighted by the Scottish Government, an apparent “£4.42billion to Scotland”.

Friday’s Data

The only major data on Friday was posted by the UK, the manufacturing industry jumping 0.7%. However not doing much to alleviate the current pressure on the Pound, which it could remain under until we have left the EU.

The forecast for 2018/19 wasn’t much better, with RBS and UBS both predicting the GBPEUR rate to drop by a further 7%, close to parity., only further strengthening the support for Euro. This support and strength is further demonstrated by analysts who predict the EU to post their best economic figures  in Q1 of 2018. Those of you holding out to see the rates improve may want to start communicating with us here at Currency Index before you are priced out of your dream move abroad.

The week ahead

The week ahead is particularly busy with Draghi, Yellen and Carney all due to speak. Historically all have a significant impact on the currency markets, which direction will we see the markets go remains to be seen but stay in touch with your CI account manager to be kept up to date with everything.

Tuesday

9.30 GBP CPI y/y

10am Carney, Draghi, Yellen speak

2.30pm USD PPI

Wednesday

9.30 GBP Average Earnings Index

1.30 USD CPI and Retail sales

3.30 Crude oil inventories

Thursday

9.30 GBP Retail sales

1.30 USD Unemployment claims

2pm BOE Carney speaks

Friday

8.30 ECB President Draghi speaks