News

Retail sales give Pound a boost

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

This morning’s UK retail sales figures showed a surprise 0.4% increase in June, at the same time as Germany and France agreed to allow Greece to slip into temporary default if necessary.

Europe agrees new bailout package for Greece

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

Eurozone leaders have announced a second bailout package for Greece, this time involving private as well as government investors. What are the effects on the Euro?

Service sector grows as Euro retail sales fall

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

We have seen a slight improvement in exchange rates this morning, as UK services growth showed a slight increase beyond analysts’ expectations.

Along with weaker Euro retail sales data, this has given sterling a small boost against the Euro and most other currencies this morning.

However, alongside other data in the last week showing poor performances in manufacturing and construction, it looks as though Britain’s recovery failed to gain momentum in the second quarter.

This week’s currency news 28

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

The first full week of the month is always busy with data releases, and July is no exception.

The main news due out for those of you buying or selling Euros is likely to be Thursday’s Eurozone interest rate decision. The ECB are widely tipped to increase the base rate to 1.5%, which markets have been pricing in over recent weeks giving a stronger (more expensive) Euro. The UK interest rate decision on the same day is very likely to be ‘no change’.

In the USA, we have a holiday today for Independence Day, and will wait until Friday for the main data of the week, non-farm payrolls which is the main monthly indicator of the health of the US jobs market and can cause volatility in the dollar.

In general sterling remains vulnerable and until we see some improvements in confidence and the outlook in the UK, we don’t expect any major upward movement for the Pound.

Monday 4th
US Bank Holiday
0815 – Swiss retail sales
0930 – UK manufacturing

Tuesday 5th
0530 – Australian interest rate decision
0930 – UK services
1000 – Eurozone retail sales
1500 – US factory orders

Wednesday 6th
1000 – Eurozone GDP
1100 – German factory orders
2345 – New Zealand GDP

Thursday 7th
0230 – Australian unemployment
0930 – UK industrial & manufacturing production
1200 – UK interest rate decision
1245 – Eurozone interest rate decision

Friday 8th
0645 – Swiss unemployment rate
0930 – UK PPI inflation
1200 – Canadian unemployment rate
1330 – US non-farm payrolls

GDP as expected

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

This morning’s final revision to UK Q1 GDP showed ‘no change’ to the previous reading of 0.5% growth in the 3 months to March.

Those of you following exchange rates for sending money abroad will have been hoping for better news to turn around the Pound’s recent decline.

With house price and mortgage data still to come this week, further losses could be on the cards unless there is some (unlikely) positive news.

Currency news this week 30

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

As we near the end of June, a quiet week ahead for economic data, with the notable exception of UK GDP released tomorrow morning at 9.30am. This is the final revision of economic growth in the first quarter of 2011, and one of the main measures which influences markets’ views on the UK economy – therefore any revision to the previous figures is likely to have an immediate impact on sterling.

Don’t forget that next week the European Central Bank are likely to raise their interest rates too, which could well give the Euro strength, reducing rates for buying Euros. We also have the ongoing Greek crisis with votes due on austerity measures, and the prospect of UK strikes later in the week unlikely to help the Pound’s cause either.

Monday 27th
1330 – US personal income & expenditure

Tuesday 28th
0930 – UK GDP & business investment
1500 – US consumer confidence

Wednesday 29th
0930 – UK mortgage approvals
1000 – Eurozone consumer confidence
1200 – Canadian CPI inflation
Overnight – UK consumer confidence

Thursday 30th
0700 – German retail sales
0855 – German unemployment
1000 – Eurozone CPI inflation
1330 – Canadian GDP

Friday 1st
1500 – US construction spending

Bank of England votes 7-2 as Greece survives vote

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

The Bank of England has revealed its interest-rate setting committee voted 7-2 to keep interest rates on hold in June.

New member Ben Broadbent voted for no change, replacing ex-member Andrew Sentance who was a supporter of higher interest rates.

In a blow for the Pound, interest rate rises this year are now seen as even less likely, causing the value of sterling to fall this morning.

In Greece, the government has also passed a vote of confidence ahead of proposed austerity measures and another ECB/IMF bailout, adding strength to the Euro and decreasing exchange rates further for those of you sending money to Europe.

This week’s currency news 32

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

This week’s main news for the Pound is likely to be Wednesday’s Bank of England Minutes, which will show the split in the vote to keep interest rates on hold earlier this month. With a new committee member, Ben Broadbent, voting for the first time, there may be some change from the 6-3 split seen in the last few months.

With ongoing severe debt problems in Greece, planned public sector strikes in the UK next week, and lots of other economic news due out around the world, there could be volatility in the currency markets.

Monday 20th
0700 – German PPI inflation

Tuesday 21st
0230 – Australian interest rate minutes
0930 – UK public sector net borrowing
1000 – Eurozone & German ZEW sentiment survey
1330 – Canadian retail sales
1500 – US home sales
2345 – New Zealand current account

Wednesday 22nd
0930 – Bank of England minutes
1000 – Eurozone industrial orders
1500 – Eurozone consumer confidence
1730 – US interest rate decision

Thursday 23rd
0715 – Swiss trade balance
0900 – Eurozone manufacturing & services inflation
0930 – UK mortgage approvals

Friday 24th
1330 – US GDP

Retail sales fall

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

May’s disappointing retail sales figures, showing a 1.4% drop in May, have held sterling back this morning.

High street activity was expected to fall after April’s spike due to the royal wedding and run of bank holidays, but the decline was much more than expected.

We have now had all major UK data for the week, although for those of you tracking Euro rates we have the ECB monthly report and Eurozone trade balance due out tomorrow morning.

Mixed bag for unemployment

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

Unemployment figures this morning showed a drop of 88,000 in the 3 months to April, the biggest fall since 2000, with the jobless total now 2.43m.

However, the number of jobseekers’ allowance claimants rose by 19,600 to 1.4m, the biggest rise since July 2009.

Earnings growth also fell.

Given the mixed data, the Pound intially fell but has since recovered against the Euro, although is losing ground against the US Dollar. Call us at Currency Index for the latest live rates.