News

This week on the markets

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

This week sees fewer data releases than normal, as most of the key monthly data has come out already. Therefore we expect commercial exchange rates to be less volatile than we have seen so far this month.

Last week’s UK inflation data was better than expected, as was the Rightmove house price data released overnight, so the Pound is looking a little stronger this morning. Contact your currency company if you would like to discuss the implications for your own transactions.

This week’s main news releases are as follows:

Monday

1.30pm – Canadian foreign investment data

3pm – US economic trends

Tuesday

1.30am – Reserve bank of Australia meeting minutes

2pm – Canadian interest rate decision

4pm – Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke’s speech (USA)

Wednesday

2.30am – Australian CPI inflation

9.30am – Bank of England meeting minutes for July

3pm – US house price index

Thursday

9am – Eurozone current account balance figures

9.30am – UK retail sales data

1.30pm – US jobless claims

Pound creeps up

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

Despite yesterday’s headline-making unemployment figures in the UK, the Pound has not fallen – perhaps because poor figures were already factored into the value of GBP.

A terrible reading from the key German ZEW business survey also helped keep the Euro weak.

For the US Dollar, the Federal Reserve’s downbeat outlook on the US recession have helped to weaken the dollar, the exchange rate now is back up above $1.64 to the Pound.

This week’s major data is now all out, so anybody with currency requirements should perhaps take stock of the latest movements and speak to Currency Index about securing rates, which can be done up to 2 years ahead of your anticipated requirement.

Inflation on target

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

This morning’s key inflation data has come out exactly as analysts expected – so there has been little effect on the Pound.

Euro exchange rates are now back up in the €1.16s [mid-market level] and the rate for sending money to the USA has recovered above $1.63. This afternoon sees 6 important news releases in the USA, at 1.30pm.

RICS House Price Boost

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

This morning’s Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors data showed a surprise increase in house prices for June – showing the second-highest monthly increase in the number of houses increasing in price, since the survey began in 1978.

Retail sales data released overnight also showed a 3.2% increase in the year to June.

The Pound has gained ground on these two pieces of positive news – next is retail inflation at 9.30am…

Euro back below 1.15

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

Sterling has fallen below 1.15 against the Euro [mid-market level] for the first time in a month, as negative sentiment continues in the UK.

Anybody needing to send money to Europe should speak to their currency company for the latest news, as wishful thinking can be expensive in the currency markets.

Sterling has fallen 3% against the single currency, since its peak in mid-June.

This week’s exchange rate outlook

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

Plenty of news due out this week which is likely to affect commercial exchange rates – whichever currencies you need to buy or sell, contact Currency Index for our views on the market.

UK Data
Monday (overnight) – retail sales and RICS house prices
Tuesday (9.30am) – CPI & RPI inflation figures
Wednesday (9.30am) – unemplyment rate for May

European Data
Monday (11.30am) – ECB President Trichet’s speech
Tuesday (10am) – industrial production data
Wednesday (10am) – CPI inflation

Amercian Data
Tuesday (1.30pm) – PPI inflation and retail sales for June
Wednesday (1.30pm) – CPI inflation
Wednesday (7pm) – minutes from the last FOMC meeting
Thursday (3pm) – manufacturing survey

Other Data
Canada – Monday (1.30pm) – Bank of Canada business outlook survey
Australia – Tuesday (2.30am) – key business confidence data
Switzerland – Wednesday (8.15am) – May retail sales

Pound better on monetary easing & trade balance

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

Two important figures out in the UK today have given the Pound a welcome boost. This morning, the trade balance figure showed a defecit of £2.2bn, better than analysts’ expectations of £2.75bn. Then, at lunch time, the Bank of England announced they are not using all the funds made available for quantitative easing, putting off the decision to inject a further £25bn into the economy until August.

Sending money abroad has got cheaper during the course of today as a result, with most exchange rate posting gains of around 1%.

Clients wishing to take advantage of a spike in the market should consider booking a forward contract, which secures a fixed exchange rate for the future.

Swiss unemployment up

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

Swiss unemployment has risen slightly more than expected, according to figures out this morning. The number of Swiss unemployed is now up to 3.6%.

The Swiss Franc weakened around 0.5% on the release of the news, good news if you are sending money to Switzerland.

Industrial data negative

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

The UK’s industrial and manufacturing data both showed suprise falls this morning, in further bad news for the Pound.

Manufacturing and industrial data for May were expected to show an increas on April’s figures – but the opposite has happened and damaged expectations of economic recovery, and hence the Pound has fallen.

Commercial exchange rates fell around 0.5c against both the Euro and Dollar on the release of the news.

Pound down as momentum shifts

28 July, 2011

CurrencyIndex

More losses for the Pound this morning – despite the lack of any major data, last week’s slight drop in exchange rates has been compounded, suggesting we have seen the top for sterling for the moment.

If you need to buy Euros at the best rates or send dollars to the USA, we would suggest considering all your options, as holding out for better rates does not seem to be paying off currently.

Tomorrow’s manufacturing and house price data will be of interest to the market, and any negative news is likely to bring rates down further.