Game of Crones

23 April, 2019

Paul Newfield

After somehow angering many in the EU Brexit negotiating collective about breaking for Easter holidays, immediately after reaching an agreement over an extension, British MPs return to work after a short period away from the commons. There was nothing of note data-wise on Good Friday or yesterday on Easter Monday and this trend continues with a very much data-light week from the UK and Europe, although there is plenty to assess from the USA over the next few days, which could lend itself to causing some movement in the rates across the major pairings of currencies particularly with the lack of offering from the UK or Europe. With the extension, it is now highly likely the UK will have representatives at the European elections coming up on the 23rd May.

Exchange rates across the majors have been flat, moving only as much as a third of a cent over the last six days, but with Brexit talks recontinuing, this could be set to change. Theresa May’s government will recommence discussions with Corbyn’s Labour party; the idea being a very long shot of coming to some sort of significant understanding and agreement on certain sections of some sort of amendment to May’s existing deal. This, though has angered a lot of senior Tory backbenchers, who are set to meet later today as part of the 1922 committee to discuss their next move and probably May’s future.

Today sees housing stats from the USA after lunch. Wednesday morning sees IFO business assessment data from Germany, an economic bulleting from the EU and public sector net borrowing from the UK. On Thursday we have consumer confidence from Germany in the morning whilst the afternoon sees employment and goods data from the USA. Friday rounds it off with GDP and expenditure stats from the USA.