GDP Focus

29 April, 2014

Tom Arnold

The markets had little of serious note to digest as the week began yesterday, with rates very similar this morning to that which we greeted Monday morning with. However from here on in we have a plethora of data, with various important releases from the Eurozone and the US, as well as some important figures here in the UK too.

This morning kicks things off with probably the most important data release from a Sterling view point – Q1 GDP from the Office for National Statistics in the UK. Some very positive estimates for UK growth have been suggested for 2014 with the “fastest growth in the G7” tag-line being suggested, so expectations are high. This is potentially good news for the Pound, as long as these expectations are met – woe betide those buying a foreign currency with Sterling if these expectations are not met – analysts have mentioned half cent drops against both the Dollar and the Euro if the GDP figure is only slightly below expectations, which is entirely possible given flatter retail sales over the last three months.

Elsewhere today, sees inflation data from Germany and various industrial, business and economic sentiment/confidence figures from Europe as a whole. Inflation in Europe is a very important indicator at present, given it will definitely be one of the main focuses which impact ECB policy in the short term. Mario Draghi has been quoted as saying the ECB is still a long way off implementing further stimulus packages, but any sudden inflation pressures could easily alter this stance.

No real data from the US is due today, with most of their big hitters, including the FED’s monthly policy decision and Non-farm Payrolls, due at the end of the week on Thursday and Friday respectively.

Make sure you stay in very close contact with your CI account manager to be kept informed of exactly what is happening and how it will impact your upcoming purchase of currency.