No Cash For Greece Unless Total Reform

27 April, 2015

Simon Eastman

Last week we saw a fairly quiet one for UK ecostats leaving sterling open to investor sentiment and stats from elsewhere. This led to an “up and down” week as sterling benefited from weaker EU and US stats, coupled with some choice words from the MPC who indicated a couple of members were on the verge of voting for interest rate hikes again.

The week ended with some weak German IFO economic sentiment figures and the shadow of the EuroGroup meeting on Friday afternoon. The weak data allowed sterling to gain against the single currency, having made excellent gains mid week (after the MPC comments) only to see these wiped off on Thursday. During the afternoon once the US session kicked off, the poor durable goods data gave way for sterling to make further gains against the dollar, finishing off at a six week high, great news for anyone buying in the Florida sun or businesses importing from Asia. The pounds gains against the single currency euro were compounded when news came from the EuroGroup meeting that Greece would not receive any further funding unless a full set of reforms were agreed to. With the next round of payments due for salary ad pensions at the end of April, the Greeks will need to be quick to show willing if they’re to receive the bailout pot to make these payouts.

So we have the Greek issue to contend with this week on the one hand, but just over a week until the UK general election where we are likely to start to see things hot up as parties vie for our votes and the “which way will it go” polls come out on a daily basis adding fuel to the fire of sterling volatility. Anyone looking to buy euros with sterling could be in for another rocky week as the month comes to an end so if this includes you, it could be prudent to trade sooner rather than later just in case!

Asides from the political uncertainty we have a few important key economic releases throughout the week to contend with. Here are the highlights:
Monday: US Markit services PMI ad Australian Governor Glenn Stevens speech
Tuesday: UK GDP, US consumer confidence and house price index, New Zealand trade balance
Wednesday: EU economic sentiment, German inflation, US GDP, Federal Reserve interest rate decision, RBNZ interest rate decision and policy statement
Thursday: German unemployment, EU inflation, US inflation, Canadian GDP
Friday: Labour Day around Europe, UK mortgage data, UK and US Markit manufacturing PMI

Plenty to go on, Greek repayments to make and countdown to the UK election all happening this week, so make sure to give one of the CI team a call today to discuss your personal requirements.