O Brexit, Where Art Though?

21 March, 2019

Samuel Roberts

Well, yesterday was about as interesting as the Brexit has been so far.

Yesterday evening, Theresa May gave an impassioned speech from Downing Street stating that she is not prepared to delay Brexit talks beyond June 30th, as she is tired of the political infighting.  It would mean us having to vote in upcoming European elections, while still in the Eu and it was not what we the British people voted for.

Earlier in the House of Commons, Theresa May announced that she is going to Brussels today, to ask for that extension until the 30th June.

There are two small issues with this.  Initially, Donald Tusk made it clear that he thinks any extension would just deliver more uncertainty for an extended period to the British people. He then said yesterday, that the EU would consider a small extension, under the proviso that the British parliament accepts Theresa May’s previously voted down deal.

The second issue is that none of her party has previously backed any of her deals,  but the difference is, this time she literally is running out of rope.

It has been suggested by one of my learned colleagues that this could just be a ploy to run the clock down and get a ‘No  Deal Brexit’ or even a ‘No Brexit’ because (as he rightfully pointed out) Theresa May was always a ‘remainer’ to begin with.

Another problem with an extension for too long a period of time is that if it does pass and is for another three months, that could be enough time to usurp the current Prime Minister, have a leadership race and force a general election.

Of course, all of this is reliant on John Bercow (The Speaker of the House) allowing it to be voted on in the first place.

However this plays out over the coming days and weeks, the only certainty is that the financial markets will continue to surprise us, with instability, jumps and dips being the order of the day, any day.

While in the U.S, President Trump is having another ‘Twitter spat’ with George Conway.  George Conways’  Wife (Kellyanne Conway) works in the Oval Office, alongside President Trump.  Trump calls George a loser, George says the president has a severe mental condition and Kellyanne says’ that the President is a good man and not mental at all.  Both sides of the Senate are wondering why the President is involving himself in a private marital matter and not focused on, let’s say the economy for example.

With regards to today’s data releases, this morning we have:

The Australian Employment Figures

These are an indicator as to the strength of the working force of Australia.  This is key as Australia is one of two hubs that reflects the strength (or weakness) of the Asian market.

Employment figures advanced 39,100 to 12,751,800 so far, easily beating the general market consensus of an increase of around 15,000.  So looking strong there.

There is also a Royal Bank of Australia Bulletin.

The RBA kept their cash rate low at 1.5% and this has followed a record inactive period for the bank of over thirty-one straight months.  All eyes are looking to see if the rate increases or decreases.

There has not been a need to move wildly one way or the other, as the Chinese and Japanese economies have ‘propped up’ there neighbours, due to their bullishness and acquisitions.

We have the UK Month on Month and Year on Year retail figures.

These are key, as they are a clear indicator as to the strength (or weakness ) of the British purchasing power and our ability to spend on the high street.  A rise in the previous month of 1% was welcome news, as we had previously seen falls of -0.7%  So the city waits and hopes for a gain of around a 0.2% addition to the previous 1% of last month.

Later on this afternoon,  have an announcement from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)

In the past, the Bank of England policymakers voted unanimously to hold the Bank Rate at 0.75% Indicating there would be fewer increases in borrowing costs in 2019

The UK economy has faced its’ weakest economic growth in 10 years amid persistent concerns about Brexit and a global slowdown. The Bank lowered its 2019 economic growth forecast to 1.2% from its previous estimate of 1.7%.

Interest Rate Decision and Quantitative Easing Decision from The Bank of England (BoE) on Interest rates

Also later this afternoon, there are two statements from the BoE on Quantitative Easing (or the art of printing money, as it is known more cynical circles) and their interest rate decision. The Bank will announce their decisions as to whether to increase the QE effort or not but this is strongly linked to the BoE interest rate decision which comes out just before the Quantitative Easing announcement.

The city is expecting a ‘Hold’ at 0.75%

All in all, quite a busy day.

If you are considering a currency exchange for whatever reason, whether you are considering purchasing a home overseas, a helicopter or a yacht or sending your pension or overseas home utility payments.  Please speak with your Currency Consultant, as their main aim is to make sure that you gain the most out of these uncertain times.