Overseas Focus

9 January, 2013

Tom Arnold

As a result we are having to look to the oversea’s markets to try and plot our route forward. Today does see some interesting, but not wildly important UK data out, with trade balance figures due at 9.30am. Expectations are for a narrowing of the deficit from just £9.539 billion to £9.05 billion. If anything dramatically different comes to pass then we could see some movement for the Pound – it certainly wouldn’t be the first time.

Much more interestingly we have Q4 GDP figures out for the Eurozone. Will Europe remain in recession or will they have managed to overturn the -0.1% deficit? Expectations are for no change, but with a slightly more positive feel from Europe at the moment – especially their recently stronger than expected unemployment figures – there is every chance of a turnaround. If they are out of recession then expect the Euro to strengthen significantly – anyone buying or selling Euros should most definitely watch this space.

The US is pretty quiet this week, with most of the important news for this month dealt with last week, so the rest of the week will be very much focused on tomorrow lunchtime’s BOE and ECB monthly policy statements and the following ECB press conference. Neither bank is expected to change either interest rates or stimulus packages, but the ECB press conference is expected to be a bit more revealing – a fairly dovish tone is anticipated – will this come to pass or will Mario Draghi have any surprises up his sleeves?

As ever stay in close touch with your CI account manager to make sure you are kept well informed of what’s occurring in the markets, so you are best armed to make your currency decisions.