Pound Remained Fairly Flat

Last week, despite some key data releases in the shape of inflation, retail sales and GDP, the pound remained fairly flat, trading within a very tight range only seeing a slight uptick on Friday which quickly diminished.

Inflation came down further to 2.4% giving even less reason for the Bank of England to raise interest rates, while retail sales posted better than forecast but this wasn’t enough to give sterling a significant boost. On Friday GDP came in as expected so again nothing really happened until the afternoon when the dollar started to perform as US markets opened, leading to a weak euro (as per the currency see-saw we’ve been seeing recently) allowing sterling to make some muted gains against the single currency also. It wasn’t much though, half a cent at best and most of these gain were lost again by close of trade.

To add to sterlings lack of appeal, Mark Carney suggested we could even see interest rates cut again and further Quantitative Easing if the UK faces a hard Brexit, which will leave investors even less likely to back the pound going forward, especially while Theresa May continues to make no headway regards the customs union.

As this week starts late following the late spring Bank Holiday yesterday here and in the US, we have a really quiet week for UK data, with nothing out until Thursday with mortgage supply figures and manufacturing PMI on Friday. Elsewhere it’s a little busier from Wednesday, with the following to look out for:

Wednesday:

German inflation
EU business climate survey
US GDP
Canadian interest rate decision and policy statement

Thursday:

Swiss GDP
UK mortgage approvals
EU unemployment
EU inflation
US inflation
Canadian GDP

Friday:

EU manufacturing PMI
UK manufacturing PMI
US non-farm payrolls
US average earnings
US unemployment rate

A quiet start but busier from mid-week onwards, so if you have a currency requirement involving sterling, euro, US or Canadian dollars, be sure to stay in touch with the team here at CI for some friendly guidance.