Quiet start to July for exchange rates

1 July, 2019

Robin Haynes

As we enter the second half of 2019 (yes, really) there is not a huge amount of data due out likely to affect exchange rates. After Friday’s UK GDP data came out unrevised at 0.5%, the Pound remained on the back foot, and the UK economy remains firmly in the grip of Brexit limbo, as we await the result of the Conservative leadership contest later this month.

The trend in Q2 against the Euro shows a worrying decline since the long-forgotten hope of a Brexit deal getting through parliament in the Spring. Without a withdrawal agreement, fears of a new recession, caused by disruption to the supply of goods and services as well as consumer and business spending caution, is a real one. Should either Mr Johnson or Mr Hunt manage to take the UK out of the EU in such circumstances, the most optimistic analyst would be unlikely to see anything other than further falls across the board for the Pound.

So for those of you buying property or goods abroad, it would be sensible to consider your options before the new leader starts announcing policy at the end of July. Markets will be very sensitive to developments, but with the EU currently looking to appoint a centre-left replacement for Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker, and elections in many EU countries over the summer, it is hard to see how a renegotiated deal could possibly be in place for the end of October. Luckily, it is possible to fix and secure your exchange rate now, for delivery later in the year, if you would like to avoid the uncertainty and potential additional cost of a falling Pound, should events unfold that way.

And Finally (summary for those of you following Glastonbury this weekend)

The Pound remains firmly in Stormzy waters, with nothing obvious on the horizon likely to see rates Spinning Around. While the real Killers for exchange rates have been no-deal worries and uncertainty around Brexit, The Cure (or even Vaccines) remain completely unknown. This Eaves us no further ahead than what now seems like Years and Years.

Data this week

0930 UK mortgage approvals
1000 Eurozone unemployment
1500 US manufacturing

0530 Australian interest rate decision

0930 UK services growth

0230 Australian retail sales
1000 Eurozone retail sales

1330 US non-farm payrolls
1330 Canadian unemployment