Sensitive data this week makes GBP look volatile

21 October, 2013

Tom Arnold

The week ahead is likely to be a busy one for the currency markets with many key data releases expected. The Dollar has been suffering greatly in recent times with the US government shutdown, debt ceiling deadlines and also less mentioned but probably at least as important fears the FED will not now start slowing down their asset purchase scheme until well into 2014. This week sees a surprising data list for the US, as following the shutdown we have an unusual running order. The only releases of real note though are tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls (for September) and Unemployment rate and Friday Durable Goods Orders. Watch for these to get a further handle on the FED’s likely decisions, but this week’s movement is more likely to be driven by Europe and the UK… In Europe we have a relatively quiet week too, although a few more notable items worth watching for – German Bond Auction and EU Consumer Confidence on Wednesday, German and EU PMI figures on Thursday and finally the EU Council Meeting on Thursday and Friday. The UK brings us the busiest and likely most market sensitive data. It starts quietly with nothing today, and only Public Sector Net Borrowing tomorrow, comes in with a bang on Wednesday with the Bank of England minutes, continues in that vein on Thursday with a speech from the Bank of England governor Mark Carney, and culminates in another big bang on Friday with the first reading of Q3 GDP figures. Current levels for buying both Euro. and Dollars are just below the 9 month highs achieved last month, so with all of this data due to be released and the markets very uncertain of the likely outcomes, now is likely to be a good opportunity to discuss your currency purchase with your CI account manager, with the possibility of securing your currency, maybe on a forward contract, looking to be a probably very sensible move.