Severe warning for GBP

18 January, 2016

Matthew Boyle

Last week saw yet another poor week for GBP as its losses continued. Sentiment heavily outweighed data as we saw amidst some positive releases GBP continue to lose ground, significantly against the Euro and Dollar which in the last month has seen around 8 cent drops against both.

It would certainly seem that fortune has now changed for the pound. With the talk of a UK interest rate hike in the distance and now forecasted for Q4 this year at earliest certainly much of the wind has been taken from its sails. Add to that the ongoing possibility of a UK referendum being called as early as March and the pressures from emerging markets in particular China has seen a huge shift in the market and the rates. Aside from a relatively weak pound the Euro and Dollar, apart from currently benefitting from the situation China are both performing well.  And with the USD still profiting from its recent interest rate hike in December and with another one likely to occur in March, the currently outlook for GBP is bleak.

Whilst many of you may be holding out for the high levels we saw last year, the landscape has changed dramatically and we are potentially set for further losses in the coming weeks and months.

Those of you with upcoming requirements would be well advised to speak to your broker today and perhaps consider a forward contract which would allow you to secure a rate today, in case they continue to slide.

Given the rapid fall we have seen many of you I am sure don’t want to be caught out with a further drop and resultant increase in the cost of your transfer or perhaps all important property purchase.

This week we have a quiet start but with some key releases from Tuesday onwards, so stay in close contact with your CI account manager if you have any upcoming requirements for making international payments.


04.30     JPY         Industrial Production

21.00     NZD       NZIER business confidence


02.00     CNY        GDP

07.00     EUR        German CPI

09.30     GBP       PPI and CPI data

10.00     EUR        German ZEW survey and Eurozone CPI

21.45     NZD       CPI data


07.00     EUR        German PPI data

13.30     USD       CPI

18.00     CAD       BoC Interest rate decision and change


12.45     EUR        ECB interest rate decision

13.30     EUR        ECB Monthly Policy statement and Press conference


08.30     EUR        German Markit services

09.00     EUR        Eurozone Markit services

09.30     GBP       Retail Sales

13.30     CAD       PPI and CPI data