Thanksgiving brings stagnant market

25 November, 2016

Ashley Finill

Yesterday was a relatively flat day on the currency markets as thanksgiving was celebrated in the states thus the US markets closed for business and no data releases from the US for the day. With no notable data from both the Eurozone and the UK the currency market was fairly stagnant trading within a half a cent range on GBP/EUR. However there was room for the Euro to gain on the Dollar taking advantage of the idol US market, aiding the gain was the FOMC meeting on Wednesday which didn’t create any surprises on the market as the expected rate hike is more or less priced in providing room for Euro to fight back from its big losses against the dollar since the election, subsequently the Euro has seemingly halted Sterlings gains as the Pound had reached over 2 month highs against the Euro this week, GBP/EUR could be once again on the way back down as we enter a new month next week with vital data and Brexit information to be discussed that will almost certainly impact the rates as we close on the crazy year that is 2016.

With only four trading days left in November it is likely that the volatility in the market will be dampened down and as such we are likely to see a more stable market in the next couple of days as we have seen this week, this could be a great opportunity to buy at as with a new month brings new uncertainty of data releases with brexit coming closer and more information to be disclosed this could easily end the pounds recent rally and with the potential to see rates return towards the 1.10 support. From November start to November end Sterling has clawed back over 7 cents, on a £100k property this amounts to a €7,000 gain. With the current economic and political situation this could be the best levels we see for some time, should pro-Brexit formalities be disclosed to the media expect Sterling to fall, should the Pound return to 1.10 levels can you afford to take a hit over £7,000?

In other news yesterday the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said workers would earn less in real wages in 2021 than they did in 2008. This was of the back of Wednesdays autumn statement. Real average earnings which factor in the rising cost of living were forecast to rise by less than 5% between now and 2021. That forecast is 3.7% lower than was projected in March putting more strain on the UK’s ongoing economic woes. Today again is another fairly quiet day on the way of data, the only main data release to note is the from the UK with Q3 GDP to be released at 9.30am, the figure is expected to remain at 0.5% but should this reading come in lower than this expect Sterling to commence it’s journey back down against the Euro and the Dollar.

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