Theresa survives, for now

13 December, 2018

Nakhil Mahra

After days of guesswork whether or not we will see 48 letters go in to trigger a vote, yesterday proved to be the day. A formal announcement was made yesterday morning that the 1922 committee has received the required number of letters to trigger a vote of no confidence in Theresa May, the day would have been anything but quiet. To kick things Theresa May addressed the press and public at 8.30, confirming that she will be fighting on for her position and passionately spoke about wanting to lead the UK out of Brexit. Also stating that a change of leadership now would be catastrophic for the country as a whole given how close are to March 29. A change in leadership would have almost certainly meant that the Brexit date would have been delayed as a new leader would need more time to meet the leaders and negotiate a deal. Theresa May has repeatedly mentioned that this is the only deal the EU would offer, any further talks would be a pointless exercise.

Speculation mounted on during the late morning and early afternoon session whether or not Theresa May would get the support she needs. early indications were that she would get the required number of votes, and 171 MPs had already pledged their public support for her. These figures enough to help the Pound rally and claw back some of the losses from earlier in the week. Although still dire states this small recovery would have provided a brief reprieve for anyone needed to sell Sterling. The biggest question was, however, who is the front-runner to challenge the PM. No clear front-runner and a handful of names being thrown around, two notable names however were Boris Johnson, who has been previously talked up by fellow MPs to be the clear new leader and Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary. Early suggestions again suggesting that neither of them, however, posed a serious challenge.

As we approached 6 pm and closer to the ballot opening, Theresa May met with the 1922 Committee. If reports are to be believed she was properly tested but came out smiling, however MPs suggesting that the PM had told them she would not be leading the next general election. The question now is, how long will Mrs. May remain post-Brexit and who the new Tory leader will be.

Once the result was announced it turned out the party did have confidence in the PM, winning 200-117 in favor. She now has the job for at least one more year should she want it, but with comments earlier, December 2019 we may already have a new PM in charge. She is safe for now, but with 117 MPs against her, her position could be weaker than ever. With no majority, and only two-thirds of her party backing her she may struggle to get her deal through parliament. She won’t be facing another leadership challenge from the Tories, but should Corbyn find support in the DUP he can yet call a general election. She may have survived for now but still has no secure future. How many more twists will we see in this ongoing Brexit saga? With uncertainty still around seeing an uplift in GBP fortunes is hard to see.

Today there is only the small matter of a EU Summit where Theresa May will be joining her EU counterparts in the hope of making a breakthrough on the backstop issue. She has already met the Dutch PM and German Chancellor Angela Merkel this week to try and rally up support and renegotiate the backstop issue. To be kept up to date speak to your account manager today.