Tick-Tock goes the Brexit clock whilst reports suggest Downing street plan to delay Brexit

25 February, 2019

Matthew Boyle

Over the weekend we have seen news that Theresa May is planning on Delaying Brexit for two months in a bid to stop more Tory resignations. Reports suggest that senior officials are considering a plan to ask the EU to delay article 50 by 2 months, in a short-term extension to allow us time to agree a plan.

It has been confirmed that the UK’s meaningful vote will now be delayed until March the 12th, which then leaves only 17 days until the deadline date of the 29th when we are scheduled to leave the EU. As it stands if Theresa May fails to get her current deal through parliament, we are on route to crash out with No-deal, and with no change to the current status-quo over the Irish backstop, currently these odds are looking likely.

Over the weekend 3 cabinet ministers signalled they would support a delay to prevent a no-deal ….Amber Rudd, David Gauke, and Greg Clark whilst other reports suggest a group of backbench Tories are close to tabling an amendment to extend article 50 if a deal cannot be secured.

However, reports suggest that Brussels would not accept a short-extension and would either force us to accept a 21-month extension and stay until 2021, or the inevitable crash out which is now becoming a less appealable outcome…..even to the hard-line Brexiteers.

And so the uncertainty continues to play on, and as such volatility in rates is likely to increase as the Brexit clock ticks down and March 29th nears closer. It now seems that the most likely outcomes are an extension, or no-deal – two outcomes that could see rates move dramatically.

You may like to consider this and speak to your broker today to remove the risk and potential increase to cost. Whilst Brexit continues to take centre stage, elsewhere in the world with have a busy week for the USD with several FED speeches through the week, and manufacturing data on Friday. We also have data of note from New Zealand, Canada, and Switzerland.

So those readers with USD, NZD, CAD of CHF requirements would also be advised to keep in close contact.

13.30 USD Chicago Fed national activity Index

N/A GBP Inflation Report Hearings
N/A GBP UK Prime Minister May Speech
N/A USD FED Chair Powell’s Speech
21.45 NZD Import and Export data

08.30 EUR ECB member Coueres Speech
13.30 USD Non-defence capital goods orders
13.30 CAD CPI data
N/A USD FED Chair Powell Testifies
N/A GBP UK parliamentary vote on Brexit

06.45 CHF GDP data
07.45 EUR French CPI data
13.00 EUR German Harmonized index of consumer prices
13.15 USD FED Chair Powell’s speech
13.30 USD GDP data

01.45 CNY Manufacturing PMI
08.55 EUR German Unemployment data
10.00 EUR CPI data
13.30 CAD GDP data
15.00 USD ISM manufacturing PMI