Trigger of all the figures

30 July, 2013

Paul Newfield

The start of this week was fairly quiet in terms of data releases from elsewhere, but kicking things off we have the knowledge that UK mortgage approvals were down nearly two thousand on the estimated consensus of 59500, but only slightly down on the previous of 57000. Consumer credit also came in lower than previous at 0.5bn, down from 0.8bn. Sterling in circulation (M4 Money) also didn’t hit the target of expectation. Despite an increase of 0.2%, it wasn’t the gain of 0.3% that was hoped for. The familiar theme of improving levels whilst still not reaching the high levels of expectation continued with an increase in net lending to individuals, up from 0.5bn to 1.0bn, whilst, again, not reaching the level of 1.4bn that was predicted. How did these four, fairly major pieces of data effect the Pound? Well, they conspired, after release to, push Sterling down against both the single currency and the USD by about 0.1 of a cent in both cases – certainly not a disaster by any stretch and the Pound did rally, somewhat, with a welcome indication that retail sales have grown at their fastest pace since January, according to the Confederation of British Industry. The high reading of 17 was made available, up sixteen from the previous of 1 and up seven from the predicted level of 10. Elsewhere, in the US, pending home sales for June came in well under expectation at – 0.4%, way down from the previous gain of 5.8% and even missing low expectations of -0.1% from the previous month. Year on year results were similar, with a decrease, at 10.9%, down from the previous of 12.1% and lower than the expected of 11.5% The monthly Texas manufacturing outlook survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas also indicated decline with the figure of 4.4 being lower than the predicted 7.3 that had been bandied about and lower than the previous of 6.5. Despite this poor data for the US, Sterling failed to claw back earlier losses. Today sees the following moderate/major data releases; 10:00 – European confidence 13:00 – German CPIs 15:00 – US consumer confidence To stay fully updated, keep in touch with your dedicated Currency Index trader to talk about sending money abroad.