UK focus on Retail Sales this week

19 October, 2015

Rob Bastin

Last weeks’ trading finished on a quiet note with exchange rates largely consolidating within a small range after bigger movements seen earlier in the week. Euro-zone inflation was released in the morning and met expectation with a monthly growth figure of 0.2%, confirming annual inflation at 0.9%. As results did not differ from the consensus the Euro’s value was not affected and rates remained stable. The afternoon offered only a consumer sentiment index for the USA which remained extremely positive at 92.1, beating forecasts of 89. With the USD having dropped in price over the weak, it was able to regain a small amount of ground against the pound and Euro following this good data.

The week ahead is much quieter for the UK with Retail Sales on Thursday being the main announcement to look out for. The trend of the last couple months has seen sterling being sold without good data to support it and considering its brief gains last week, it is very likely we could see the selling return without any good figures to prevent a further continuation of the negative trend we are currently seeing. We also have interest rate decision from both Canada and the Euro-zone whilst no change in monetary policy is expected to be announced on either side.

With fewer announcement on the economic calendar this week, those that are scheduled are likely to be even more important for any spikes that we may see. A list of those to watch out for are as below:

2:30am (AUD) – RBA Meeting Minutes

9:30am (GBP) – Public Sector Net Borrowing
3:00pm (CAD) – Bank of Canada interest rate decision

9:30am (GBP) – UK Retail Sales
12:45pm (EUR) – ECB interest Rate Decision
1:30pm (EUR) – ECB Press Conference

9:00am (EUR) – Services/Manufacturing/Composite PMI
1:30pm (CAD) – Consumer Price Index
2:45pm (USD) – Manufacturing PMI